An Interview with Economic Forecaster and Business Author Dr. Alan Beaulieu
One of the country’s most informed economists, Dr. Alan Beaulieu is the president of ITR Economics. Since 1990, he has been consulting with companies throughout the U.S., Europe and Asia on how to forecast, plan and increase their profits based on business cycle trend analysis.
Dr. Beaulieu has been providing workshops and economic analysis seminars in countries across the world to literally thousands of business owners and executives for the last 25 years.
He is the co-author of “Prosperity in the Age of Decline,” a powerful look at how to make the most of the U.S. and global trends over the next 20 years. Alan also co-authored “Make Your Move,” a practical and insightful guide on increasing profits through business cycle changes, which was noted by one reviewer as “simple, yet awesome.”
As the chief economist for numerous U.S. and European trade associations, it has been remarked that Dr. Beaulieu’s “insight into our business, a track record of accurate forecasting and unparalleled knowledge of global markets has earned him the respect and appreciation of key business leaders in our industry.”
Please tell me a little bit about ITR Economics and its mission.
ITR Economics provides the best possible economic intelligence to people who can use an accurate look into the future to increase profitability and enhance their lives. Companies that internalize our forecasts and methodology will gain a competitive advantage in the timing of strategies and tactics that are appropriate for the current and future state of the economy.
You spoke at the Coin Laundry Association’s inaugural Excellence in Laundry Conference in 2012 – and you’ll be a featured speaker again at this year’s event in May. How has the economy changed or shifted since then? What have been the biggest changes since last you’ve addressed our industry?
The United States has become a stronger, more attractive nation since 2012. A major driver to that increased competitive position is our oil and gas industry. A stable, low-cost energy platform is attracting firms from around the world. American consumers also are in a stronger, healthier position than they were in 2012.
How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?
Gross domestic product is rising at record high levels, employment is at record high levels and consumer spending also is at a record high level. We have our weaknesses and soft spots, but overall we are in a good position for long-term growth. It’s just that most people don’t recognize that and are concentrating on the dangers, not the opportunities.
Last year, the CLA began offering its members a quarterly economic report, which is published by your company. Can you discuss this report, as far as what it includes and how specifically it can help laundry owners better run their businesses?
Laundry owners can use the general economic information to gauge what business decisions to make – and when to make them – as they would in any industry. When is the right time to borrow, to expand, to update, to renovate, to pour money into advertising or to engage in aggressive campaigns to keep talent? The information on consumer expenditures gives owners a clear road map as to how likely it will be for the average consumer to spend more, or less, in their establishments. Information on consumer generational shifts also will be presented as they occur, any one of which can impact an owner.
Heading into 2016, do you see the U.S. economy growing? And what factors are going to impact that growth?
Yes, the economy is definitely growing. And the major factors affecting that growth are the American consumer and a gradually improving economy in the rest of the world.
How much of a drag are state and local budget issues having on economic growth and employment?
I’m not seeing a drag on growth. I don’t have this quantified in all areas, but state and local governments, in fact, are spending more on construction than they were a year ago.
How strongly does the climate in Europe and Asia impact small business here in the U.S.?
It impacts the U.S. dollar, which affects import prices. It can create or add jobs to a local economy – which may be or can become laundry customers – and it can accelerate our rate of growth as a nation.
You’re the co-author of the popular business book, “Make Your Move.” In this book, you discuss the importance of the business cycle. Can you please explain this concept and how it works?
The book presents a methodology for individual businesses to compare themselves to the economy so as to enhance profitability through improved decision making. We call the process an “Executive Vantage Point” when we do this for firms.
How can laundry owners pinpoint what phase of the business cycle their businesses are in?
They can do so either through an “Executive Vantage Point” or by utilizing our first book, “Make Your Move.”
How can laundry owners spot future changes in the business cycle before they take place?
They can do this by tracking the appropriate leading indicators. They need to set up a system of indicators that apply to their business. If two of your leading indicators go up or down, pay attention. And, when five leading indicators reverse direction, it’s time to act.
What are some of the leading indicators that you study to accurately predict business cycles? And which indicators would apply to a typical self-service laundry business?
In “Make Your Move,” we outline a number of strong leading indicators, such as corporate bond prices, orders vs. inventory levels, the stock market, housing starts and retail sales.
In addition, some “confirming indicators,” which serve to verify the findings of the leading indicators include change in the temporary work force, decreased unemployment and new orders for non-defense capital goods.
By contrast, some invalid indicators that we feel should not be relied upon are: newspapers and the media, unemployment numbers, consumer expectations, sales force reports and politicians’ predictions.
Of course, laundry owners can contact us for a customized program that’s right for their specific locations and business models.
What’s the best advice you would give a laundromat operator looking to grow his or her business within the next 12 months?
Look how your business has performed in times of economic expansion, remember what you wish you had done, and start doing that now.
With regard to the economy, what common mistakes do you see small-business owners making?
Many of them believe that they are insulated from economic events. Clearly, this isn’t the case.
As a speaker at this year’s Excellence in Laundry Conference, what can attendees expect to hear. Can you give me a sneak peek at a few of the highlights of your presentation?
The economy is better than you think, the consumer is healthier than you think and aggressive behavior will be rewarded.
What one key point would you most like laundry owners reading this interview to take away from it?
The key take-away is that self-service laundry owners need to act now in preparation for a better, stronger second-half of 2016.
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