“Demography is destiny.” – William H. Frey, author of “Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics are Re-making America”
In the midst of the New Year’s Eve hoopla, I came across a tweet in my Twitter timeline from the U.S. Census Bureau. The message exalted the fact that upon the stroke of 2015, the United States population had grown to 320,090,857 million people. Doing what I do for a living, I have to admit that my first thought was “that’s a lot of laundry!”Aside from the sad commentary on my reliably boring New Year’s Eve spent reading tweets that number certainly got me thinking about its bearing on the future of our laundry business.
Now, I’ve been around this industry long enough to have heard nearly every well-worn adage about what makes the laundromat business tick. One of the first I heard describing the importance of demographics was “the more people, the more dirty clothes.” It’s hard to argue the simple message promoted with these words. Of course, over time we’ve gotten pretty sophisticated when it comes to analyzing the demographics of a potential laundry location. It’s not so much how many people are in the neighborhood as much as who lives within that desired radius.
In his book quoted above, William H. Frey describes the demographic transformation underway in the U.S. and the associated impacts on the economy and politics. By adapting the data delivered through the 2010 U.S. Census and other sources, Frey describes in great detail the seismic shift that is rapidly re-making the racial composition of our country. By now, you’re right to ask what this has to do with the laundry business. In my opinion, it has everything to do with the projected demand for our services in the decades to come.
Citing data showing a rapidly aging white population along with low fertility rates – coupled with a new baby boom among Hispanic and Asian families, Frey gives us a look at some major changes in the composition of the population. The central projection supported in the data is a “majority-minority”country as soon as 2040 – that is, there will be no majority racial group inside of the next thirty years. This trend is being supercharged by the expansion of the youth population among the key Hispanic and Asian minority groups. The tipping point began in 2011 when, for the first time, minority births surpassed births of white children. By 2018, the U.S. population under the age of 18 will be majority-minority.
If you believe, as I do, that the self-service laundry business is greatly supported by young, minority families with children, this trajectory has to be read as a positive development for the future demand for our services. Of course, it’s not that simple. The demographic trends may be mitigated by myriad other competitive factors, including but not limited to the quality and quantity of apartment laundry facilities and sales of home washers and dryers.
But, if we are looking at the macro level, it’s hard not to conclude that there will be more wash loads for our industry to vie for in the decades to come. There will be more people – and more people who fit the traditional definition of a likely laundromat customer. How well we compete for our fair share of these laundry loads is harder to predict. I remain very optimistic about our ability to promote our laundry solution as the best for time-savings and convenience for these busy families.
You would be right to limit your interest to how these trends may impact your particular trade area – after all, this remains a neighborhood business. Frey also describes an accelerating shift in the dispersal and migration of minority populations beyond the traditional “melting pot”areas (CA, TX, FL, Chicago and NYC) to areas he’s dubbed the New Sun Belt (WA, OR, ID, WY, NV, UT, CO, AZ, TN, VA, NC, SC and GA). Data also suggests a slower paced diversification of the traditional Heartland states. No matter where you operate your laundries, you have seen (or will see) the impact.
Of course, these impacts will reach well beyond the laundry business. Politics, culture, the labor force and many other aspects of our society will be affected by these trends. However, if we’ve largely built our industry by providing the best possible laundry solution to the segment of our population best described as lower income, minority families living in rental housing, then we’re left with the question: Will this diversity explosion trigger a laundry explosion?
Ask me on New Year’s Eve 2030, and I’ll give you a more definitive answer – here’s hoping we’ll be toasting another profitable year serving a growing, more diverse customer base.
Brian Wallace is the president and CEO of the Coin Laundry Association.
